Weekends too??!

Blog 7--#MTBoS30

Okay, this is tough now, but I'll try to keep it up.
Today is easy because it is Kentucky Derby Day.  I try to work this into my classroom sometimes, but it doesn't always work out.  For next year, I want to prepare something that I can use in all of my classes, so this will be sort of a stream of consciousness about what I'm thinking.
I don't remember the first Kentucky Derby I ever watched, but I remember the first one that made a big dent in my psyche.  That was 1973.  Secretariat was running but I didn't like him at all because the other horse was named Sham--the same name as the horse in King Of The Wind by Marguerite Henry.  I had just read King Of The Wind so naturally, I was routing for Sham.  When you're a horse crazy 10 year old, a horse's name means far more than its pedigree.  I was doomed to disappointment as my ultimate dream horse kept getting beaten by you-know-who.  I watched that Belmont Stakes live, though, and even through my disappointment, I knew I was seeing something special.
One of the things that I love about the internet is that I can go back and watch all of those races now.  Maybe it would be cool if we could plot the current derby race against the 1973 derby.  Could any horse beat Secretariat?  We could talk about fractions, even plot them on a number line.  Why do horses run in furlongs anyway?  What the heck is a furlong? What's a 12 pace?
Perhaps it would be interesting to plot the paces of all the major prep races leading up to the derby to try to predict the winner.
Maybe we could look at statistics of previous derby winners.  How many greys have won?  How many come from behinders? How many winners have led from start to finish?  How many horses who were in the lead at the quarter pole or the half went on to win the race?
My usual activity has been to do this as a warm up and talk about probability.  If the odds are even, what is the likelihood of the favorite being the horse to win?  Is the favorite really the horse most likely considering that he is chosen by bettors and not horse people? How many different ways could horses finish first, second and third? How many ways could a 20 horse field finish altogether?
I like the idea of number lines for the prep races.  We could use Andrew Stadel's parallel number lines to show where horses were at what time in each race.  I could have kids pick who they think will win and why they have chosen that horse.  The Derby page has a lot of detailed information about each horse, its pedigree and previous racing experience.  They could even do a bit of research.
Because of the size of the field, the race is really wide open most years. A mile and a quarter has a way of sifting the wheat from the chaff and showing who has the heart and bottom necessary to hang on for the win. A lot of the time the winner seems to come out of the blue and that might create more interest for the kids knowing it's never really a sure thing.
Another thought is having them "bet" on the horses to see how the odds are determined.  I'd really have to think about how to structure that one.  It might not work so well with our small population.  Maybe if I gave each student "$100" to split up however they wish, then we could figure out the odds based on how much money ends up on each horse.  I'm actually liking that idea.  We could extend that into a talk about how sports betting works, the ethics of betting on sporting events and the betting fallacies involved.
I just read a blog posted by NCTM about "Kentucky Derby Math." More of a math game format based on the derby.  A different way to bring it in, but maybe we could do it as a whole class activity.  Who can win the Kentucky Math Derby the day before the race?
I'll have to think this out... problem of the week a couple of weeks before the derby to compare prep races.  Problem of the week the week before to place bets and talk about gambling. Math game the day before the derby.  I'm liking these ideas...
My horse this year is Exaggerator. I like his come from behind style and the decisive way he blew away the rest of the field in the Santa Anita Derby.  One trend I've seen in all of the prep races is fast early fractions, then paces that slow way down towards the end.  If you look at the finishing time in all of the major preps, none of them stands out as phenomenal.  If the race is run this way, it should favor a horse that comes from behind. I also think Exaggerator will be a better horse at longer distances. Plus I like his name the best.